Research on the spatial spillover effect and heterogeneity of new agricultural productive forces on agricultural carbon emissions

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2012 to 2023, this paper empirically tests the spatial spillover effect and heterogeneity of agricultural carbon emissions by using entropy method, kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, two-way fixed effect model and spatial econometric model. The results showed that: from 2012 to 2023, the overall level of agricultural new quality productivity showed a trend of continuous improvement, the nuclear density map maintained a single peak shape, the peak value first decreased, then increased, then decreased, and finally increased steadily; The regional distribution of agricultural carbon emissions showed significant heterogeneity. The nuclear density map maintained a single peak shape, and the peak value experienced a process of first rising, then falling, and then rising until stable. The local Moran index of agricultural new quality productivity is always positive, showing a fluctuating trend of "rise decline rise again", and most provinces, regions and cities are distributed in the first, second and third quadrants; The local Moran index of agricultural carbon emissions is also positive, but it shows a downward trend year by year, and most provinces, regions and cities are distributed in the first, second and fourth quadrants. Agricultural new quality productivity will significantly inhibit agricultural carbon emissions in this region and adjacent areas. Agricultural new qualitative productivity can inhibit agricultural carbon emissions by improving land productivity. In terms of regional heterogeneity, the agricultural new quality productivity in the main grain producing areas and the production and marketing balance areas will inhibit the agricultural carbon emissions in the region, but the spillover effect in the main grain producing areas is significantly positive, while the spillover effect in the production and marketing balance areas is not significant; The agricultural new quality productivity in the main grain sales areas can inhibit the agricultural carbon emissions in the adjacent areas, but the direct effect is not significant.