Policy Incentive Mechanisms for Low‐Carbon Pathway Selection in Forest Tourism Destinations

ABSTRACT Forest tourism destinations face high costs in pursuing low‐carbon development and lack sufficient internal motivation, highlighting the need for external policy incentives. Based on data from 16 forest tourism destinations in Liaoning Province from 2017 to 2022, this study estimates the costs of three low‐carbon pathways and simulates the decision‐making mechanism under differentiated subsidy scenarios. The results reveal notable disparities in unit costs: implementing on‐site technological mitigation measures (1347.6 CNY/ton), developing forestry‐based carbon sequestration projects (970.9 CNY/ton), and purchasing Chinese Certified Emission Reductions (CCERs) through the voluntary carbon market (35.1 CNY/ton). The simulation of a carbon tax on destination carbon emissions shows that such a disturbance factor has a limited impact on the marginal abatement costs of the destinations. Relying solely on carbon markets results in a strong preference for low‐cost CCERs purchases, while targeted subsidies can effectively shift preferences toward mitigation and sequestration options with greater environmental co‐benefits. Specifically, a mitigation‐only subsidy exceeding 1295 CNY/ton increases the share of destinations choosing mitigation from 43.75% to 52.08%; a sequestration‐only subsidy of 935 CNY/ton leads 54.17% to opt for carbon sequestration. When combined subsidies surpass 788 CNY/ton, 12.5% of destinations select mitigation and 75% select sequestration. At 885 CNY/ton, all destinations abandon CCERs purchases. These findings offer policy‐relevant insights into designing effective, cost‐sensitive incentives that promote substantive low‐carbon developments in the forest tourism destinations.