Ghosts of the past: presence-only modelling of historic brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) diurnal refuge sites to guide reintroduction site selection

Identification of suitable habitat is critical to guide site selection for brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) reintroduction attempts. This study aimed to develop a species distribution model of diurnal refuge sites suitable for selecting release sites for future brush-tailed rock-wallaby translocations into the Grampians and Black Range State Park. A presence-only modelling approach was used to predict the potential distribution of P. penicillata refuge habitat available within the parks based upon known historic scat locations. Environmental variables relating to habitat complexity yielded the greatest overall contribution to models (90.5%), with only minor contributions by vegetation (4.6%), elevation (3.2%) and lithology (1.6%). No relationship was observed for proximity to areas of high water flow accumulation, although sampling may have confounded results. The distribution model underlines the importance of habitat complexity for this species, particularly in the presence of exotic predators and competitors, and identifies eight key areas of high habitat suitability for future reintroductions within the Grampians region. These results highlight the strong potential for species distribution modelling to help guide the management and reintroduction of threatened species.