In January 2025, New York City became the first major U.S. city to implement a cordon-based congestion pricing policy via the Central Business District Tolling Program. While the policy’s effects on traffic volume are well-documented, its impact on road safety remains underexplored. This study evaluates the short-term effects of the program on two distinct metrics: total crash counts (frequency) and injury rates (severity, defined as the number of persons injured per 10,000 residents), using a monthly panel dataset of ZIP code-level data from January 2024 to December 2025. We employ a rigorous multi-method causal inference framework—including difference-in-differences, matched difference-in-differences, and generalized synthetic control—to estimate changes in injury rates and total crash counts independently. Across all empirical specifications, we find no statistically significant reduction in either traffic injuries or collisions following the policy’s implementation. Event study analyses confirm a consistent null effect month-over-month, with no transient or sustained safety dividend. Subject to short-term methodological constraints, our findings suggest that congestion pricing functions primarily as a demand management tool; realizing immediate road safety benefits in complex urban grid networks likely requires complementary physical infrastructure interventions.
Wang et al. (Thu,) studied this question.