Despite the rapid institutionalization of ESG reporting mandates worldwide, the empirical question of whether ESG disclosure constitutes a structural, long-run determinant of corporate financial performance—rather than a cyclical or spurious co-trending artifact—remains unresolved. The prior literature predominantly employs short-panel estimators that assume stationarity and conflate long-run equilibrium effects with transitory associations. This study addresses that gap by applying a five-step non-stationary panel econometric framework to a sample of 479 S DOLS β = +0.914, p < 0.01), while the effect on return on assets is positive but more modest and sensitive to estimator choice. Complementary fixed-effects regressions reveal an asymmetric moderating role of macroeconomic uncertainty: equity market volatility (VIX) amplifies the ESG performance premium, whereas acute credit market stress (TED spread) attenuates it. Board governance variables are statistically insignificant across all five specifications, indicating that H3 (board governance) is not supported; this outcome is attributed to limited within-firm governance variation in the large-cap S&P 500 universe rather than a genuine absence of governance effects. The results are robust to lagged ESG measurement, winsorization, and alternative interaction specifications. The findings provide strong econometric evidence for the structural, permanent nature of the ESG–financial performance link in large-cap U.S. equities, with direct implications for mandatory disclosure policy and ESG-integrated investment strategies.
Alrashed et al. (Fri,) studied this question.