Climate Change and Indian Crop Yields: Impacts and Projections

Climate change constitutes a significant threat to agricultural productivity, particularly in India, where nearly half of the population relies on agriculture for their livelihoods. The sector is increasingly exposed to rising temperatures, irregular precipitation patterns and the intensification of extreme climatic events. While previous studies have identified climate-induced yield reductions in staple crops, much of the existing evidence is based on short-term analyses and lacks a comprehensive evaluation across diverse crop groups. This study addresses this limitation by employing a panel dataset covering 20 crops across 20 Indian states from 1966 to 2016 to assess both historical impacts and projected outcomes under shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) climate scenarios. The analysis employs crop-specific, non-linear panel regression models that incorporate key climatic variables, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed and evapotranspiration, alongside critical non-climatic factors such as mechanisation, irrigation and fertiliser application. The findings indicate that crops like rice and wheat are most adversely affected by rising temperature, whereas crops like pearl millet and cotton exhibit greater resilience, though cotton remains highly sensitive to precipitation variability. Pigeon pea and sesamum benefit from increased evapotranspiration up to a threshold, beyond which yields decline. By the end of the twenty-first century, the combined effects of rising temperature and precipitation are projected to substantially reduce the yields of pigeon pea and maize. The adoption of High-Yielding Varieties (HYVs) demonstrates notable productivity gains, especially for pearl millet and rice. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies, including climate-resilient crop varieties, water-saving technologies and diversified cropping systems to enhance agricultural resilience. JEL Codes: Q15, Q54