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County-to-district mergers (chexian gaiqu), a major form of ’administrative division adjustment’ (ADA), have occurred with striking frequency across Chinese cities in recent decades. Despite the high stakes of county mergers, scholars have yet to systematically analyze the political variables that shape where and when such reforms occur. Addressing this gap, the authors assemble a novel dataset to examine the relationship between institutional and leadership factors at different government levels and the incidence of county mergers. This analysis highlights the importance of national leadership priorities in shaping the frequency and regional distribution of county mergers. It also finds that, at least in times of greater central policy permissiveness, the bargaining power of cities is a strong predictor of which localities carry out county mergers.
He et al. (Wed,) studied this question.