Hemorrhage risks and functional outcomes of untreated brainstem cavernous malformations

UNLABELLED: OBJECT.: Cerebral cavernous malformations have been studied widely, but the natural history of brainstem cavernous malformations (CMs) is not well defined, and hemorrhages caused by brainstem CMs are devastating. The goal of this study was to quantify the hemorrhage risks and functional outcomes of patients with brainstem CMs. METHODS: This prospective, longitudinal, cohort study included patients with brainstem CMs diagnosed between 1985 and 2012. The clinical courses of all patients were recorded. Predictors of hemorrhage and the overall untreated outcomes were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 331 patients (46.5% female) were included, with a mean follow-up duration of 6.5 years. The annual hemorrhage rates in patients initially presenting with hemorrhage with (n = 215) or without (n = 34) focal neurological deficits were 15.9% and 12.4%, respectively. However, the annual hemorrhage rate was 8.7% in patients initially presenting without hemorrhage (n = 82). The risk factors for hemorrhage were female sex (hazard ratio HR 1.445, p = 0.041), prior hemorrhage (HR 1.277, p = 0.029), and perilesional edema (HR 1.830, p = 0.002). Overall, neurological function at the most recent assessment was improved compared with neurological function at diagnosis. Additionally, 307 patients (92.7%) improved or stabilized, 268 (81.0%) lived independently, and 95 (28.7%) completely recovered. Predictors favoring complete recovery were no prospective hemorrhage (HR 1.958, p = 0.001), younger age (HR 1.268, p = 0.001), and small lesion size (HR 1.578, p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Patients' initial presentation predicts their prospective annual hemorrhage rate. This study suggests that several strong risk factors for hemorrhage and predictors of brainstem CM outcomes may enable clinicians to evaluate the potential hemorrhage risks of their patients and design personalized treatments.