Predicting risk factors that lead to free flap failure and vascular compromise: A single unit experience with 565 free tissue transfers

BACKGROUND: Even though the benefit of free tissue transfer is uncontested in complex reconstructive cases, vascular compromise and/or flap failure remain a challenge for the surgeon and identification of possible risk factors can aid in the preoperative planning. The aim of this study was to identify the individual risk factors leading to flap failure and/or vascular compromise in free tissue transfers in a single institution over a period of 10 years and to create an index predicting these problems, as well as finding predictors of other postoperative complications. METHODS: Data from all the patients undergoing free tissue transfers between 2009 and 2018 were retrospectively analyzed (demographics, comorbidities, flap failure, vascular compromise, and other complications). The results from the univariate and multivariate analyses were used to create an index. RESULTS: A predictability index with three classes (low, moderate, and high risk) was calculated for each patient, based on defect etiology and the presence of coronary heart disease, diabetes, smoking, peripheral arterial vascular disease, and arterial hypertension. A patient with moderate-risk index had 9.3 times higher chances of developing vascular compromise than those in the low-risk group, while a high-risk index had 18.6 higher odds (p=0.001). American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification was found to be a predictor of complications in free tissue transfer (p=0.001). CONCLUSION: If patients at a high risk of vascular compromise could be identified preoperatively through this predictability index, patient counseling could be improved and the surgeon might adapt the reconstructive plan and choose an alternative reconstructive strategy.