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BACKGROUND: Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission. METHODS: This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising both the weather-dependent within-vector stages and the weather-independent within-host stages. RESULTS: Numerical evaluations of the model in both time and space show that it qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection. CONCLUSION: A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts.
Hoshen et al. (Thu,) studied this question.