Urbanization in developing nations is proceeding at an unprecedented pace, placing immense strain on urban infrastructure and public services. Public transportation systems are widely considered critical levers for sustainable and equitable urban development, yet rigorous quantitative evidence of their economic impact in the context of emerging cities remains scarce. This paper investigates the economic impact of public transportation investment on urban development across a panel of major emerging cities. Using a fixed-effects panel data model for the period 2000–2023, this study quantifies the effect of transport infrastructure investment on key economic indicators: city-level GDP per capita , property value appreciation, and employment rates. The econometric analysis, controlling for factors such as population density, human capital, and governance quality, reveals that a one-percentage-point increase in public transport investment as a share of city GDP is associated with a statstically significant 0.045% increase in GDP per capita and a 0.12% increase in property values. While the direct impact on aggregate employment rates is found to be modest, the findings underscore the role of public transport as a potent catalyst for economic activity and asset value enhancement. The study discusses the theoretical mechanisms underpinning these results, including agglomeration economies and land value capture, and concludes with targeted policy recommendations. These include the adoption of data-driven network planning, the implementation of value capture financing mechanisms to ensure fiscal sustainability, and the integration of transport policy with inclusive housing strategies to mitigate gentrification.
Jamiu Adeniyi Yusuf (Wed,) studied this question.
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