Osteoarthritis (OA) in the elderly represents a critical public health challenge. This study utilized the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database to comprehensively assess the global burden of OA among individuals aged 60 and older from 1990 to 2021. We analyzed trends in disability-adjusted life years, prevalence, and incidence using the estimated annual percentage change. Additional methodologies included Joinpoint regression, decomposition analysis, and Nordpred predictive modeling to forecast epidemiological trajectories through 2046. In 2021, the estimated global number of prevalent OA cases among the elderly reached approximately 365.72 million, with a demographic distribution comprising 61.8% females and 38.2% males. Globally, the age-standardized rates per 100,000 population were 1197.55 for disability-adjusted life years, 33,751.01 for prevalence, and 1524.89 for incidence. From 1990 to 2021, the global OA burden exhibited a substantial and consistent rise. Geographically, the highest persistent burden occurred in high-income Asia Pacific, high-income North America, and regions with a high sociodemographic index. Stratified analyses identified the 60 to 64 age group and females as the populations bearing the greatest burden. Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth was the primary driver of the escalating OA burden globally. Furthermore, predictive modeling forecasts continued increases in these metrics by 2046. The escalating burden of OA among older adults is characterized by marked geographic and demographic disparities. These findings underscore the critical necessity for policymakers to implement targeted global public health strategies to mitigate the impact of this condition in aging populations.
Zhang et al. (Fri,) studied this question.
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