Capital gains: Revising the impact of coup proofing on tactical military effectiveness

This paper investigates how counterbalancing shapes the relationship between distance from the capital and government troops' military effectiveness. It argues that as counterbalancing intensifies, the negative effect of distance on battlefield performance becomes more pronounced. This argument rests on three mechanisms: the concentration of elite units near the capital, intensified coordination and logistical challenges in peripheral areas, and the compounding of these constraints as fragmentation increases. To test these claims, I combine battle-level data with measures of counterbalancing and estimate fractional regression models. The results show that the erosion of effectiveness with distance is greater at higher levels of counterbalancing.