Prognostic Value of Changes in the Electrocardiographic Strain Pattern During Antihypertensive Treatment

BACKGROUND: The presence of the ECG strain pattern of lateral ST depression and T-wave inversion at baseline has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality; however, the independent predictive value for cardiovascular outcomes of regression versus persistence versus development of new ECG strain during antihypertensive therapy is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: ECG strain was evaluated at baseline and after 1 year of therapy in 7409 hypertensive patients in the LIFE study (Losartan Intervention For End-point reduction in hypertension) treated in a blinded manner with atenolol- or losartan-based regimens. During 3.8+/-0.8 years of follow-up after the year 1 ECG, cardiovascular death occurred in 236 patients (3.2%), myocardial infarction in 198 (2.7%), stroke in 313 (4.2%), the LIFE composite end point of these 3 events in 600 (8.1%), sudden death in 92 (1.2%), and death due to any cause in 486 (6.6%). Strain was absent on both baseline and year 1 ECGs in 6323 patients (85.3%), regressed from baseline to year 1 in 245 (3.3%), persisted on both ECGs in 549 (7.4%), and was absent at baseline but developed by year 1 in 292 patients (3.9%). Compared with absence of strain on both ECGs, development of new ECG strain was associated with 2.8- to 4.7-fold higher event rates; patients with regression or persistence of strain had intermediate event rates. In Cox multivariable analyses with adjustment for the known predictive value of in-treatment ECG left ventricular hypertrophy by Cornell product and Sokolow-Lyon voltage, in-treatment systolic and diastolic pressure, randomized treatment, and standard cardiovascular risk factors, development of new ECG strain was independently associated with increased risks of cardiovascular death (hazard ratio HR 2.42, 95% confidence interval CI 1.56 to 3.76), myocardial infarction (HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.11 to 3.44), stroke (HR 1.98, 95% CI 1.30 to 3.01), the LIFE composite end point (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.51 to 2.78), sudden cardiac death (HR 2.19, 95% CI 1.06 to 4.53), and all-cause mortality (HR 1.92, 95% CI 1.37 to 2.69), whereas the risk associated with regression or persistence of strain was attenuated. CONCLUSIONS: Development of new ECG strain is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and of all-cause mortality in the setting of antihypertensive therapy and regression of ECG left ventricular hypertrophy.