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This article presents results of a prospective multivariate study of hospitalized elderly patients at an acute-care Veterans Administration (VA) hospital to identify factors on hospital admission predictive of several short- and long-term outcomes: in-hospital and 6-month mortality, immediate and delayed nursing home admission, length of hospital stay, and 6-month rehospitalization. All patients aged 70 years and over admitted to acute-care beds on the medical service wards during a 1-year period were included in the study (N = 396). Factors most predictive of 6-month mortality (using logistic regression) were decreased functional status, admitting diagnosis, and decreased mental status. Factors most predictive of nursing home admission were decreased functional status, living location, and decreased mental status. Functional status was a stronger predictor of length of stay, mortality, and nursing home placement than was principal admitting diagnosis--of relevance to the current emphasis on diagnosis-related groups (DRGs). These data may be helpful in improving discharge planning, in resource allocation, and in targeting patients for different specialized geriatric programs.
Narain et al. (Thu,) studied this question.