Purpose Since 2018, the escalation of Sino–US trade frictions has placed China's external trade stability under unprecedented pressure. Against this backdrop, pilot free-trade zones (FTZs) have been positioned as a key policy instrument for sustaining resilient trade growth. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the role of free-trade pilot zones in export resilience. Design/methodology/approach Using panel data covering 274 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2021 and a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) design, this article evaluates whether – and through which channels – the establishment of FTZs enhances export resilience. Findings The findings are fourfold. (1) FTZ designation significantly and robustly strengthens city-level export resilience; the result survives a battery of placebo tests, alternative resilience measures and an instrumental-variable strategy that addresses potential endogeneity. (2) The effect is heterogeneous: it is stronger in the eastern coastal region and in cities that are initially endowed with superior human capital, technological capacity and industrial sophistication. (3) Mechanism analysis reveals that the FTZ-induced improvement in export resilience operates primarily through accelerated technological innovation, skilled-labor agglomeration and industrial upgrading, and these effects are more pronounced in areas with higher economic development. (4) Importantly, the resilience-enhancing effect remains intact even after the outbreak of Sino–US trade tensions, indicating that FTZs serve as a buffer against external shocks. Originality/value These results provide rigorous evidence that FTZs bolster export resilience, offering actionable insights for the design of high-standard opening-up policies.
Wang et al. (Tue,) studied this question.