Feedbacks in Economic and Demographic Transition

It is necessary to agree on the nature and size of the interaction between population and economic phenomena at stages of national development before it can be decided what is effective and appropriate under the circumstances. The neo-Malthusian world model claims that development is impeded when the rate of population growth is high as a result of mortality reductions caused by western technology. The humane version of the model would slowly reduce mortality commensurate with reduced fertility and raise the formation of capital. The assumption is that high levels of productivity could be achieved if consumption mortality and fertility are at intermediate levels. An alternative model assumes that improvements in the standard of living and decreases in mortality and fertility rates are linked in a concurrent circular and cumulative process. A reduction in mortality may make people want smaller families. High fertility has been an accomodation to high mortality. The alternative model emphasizes improvements in health productivity and longevity. The neo-Malthusian model assumes that levels of mortality are independent of levels of living; it ignores dependence of fertility trends on mortality trends. The alternative model assumes that reduced mortality will increase the need and desire for family planning. Successful development results in and from a balance between mortality and fertility at the lowest mortality rate attainable with the available resources.