Insulin Resistance as an Independent Predictor of Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease

Insulin resistance is closely associated with atherosclerosis and cardiovascular mortality in the general population. Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are known to have insulin resistance, advanced atherosclerosis, and a high cardiovascular mortality rate. We evaluated whether insulin resistance is a predictor of cardiovascular death in a cohort of ESRD. A prospective observational cohort study was performed in 183 nondiabetic patients with ESRD treated with maintenance hemodialysis. Insulin resistance was evaluated by the homeostasis model assessment method (HOMA-IR) using fasting glucose and insulin levels at baseline, and the cohort was followed for a mean period of 67 mo. Forty-nine deaths were recorded, including 22 cardiovascular deaths. Cumulative incidence of cardiovascular death by Kaplan-Meier estimation was significantly different between subjects in the top tertile of HOMA-IR (1.40 to 4.59) and those in the lower tertiles of HOMA-IR (0.28 to 1.39), and the hazard ratio (HR) was 2.60 (95% confidence interval CI, 1.12 to 6.01; P = 0.026) in the univariate Cox proportional hazards model. In multivariate Cox models, the positive association between HOMA-IR and cardiovascular mortality remained significant (HR, 4.60; 95% CI, 1.83 to 11.55; P = 0.001) and independent of age, C-reactive protein, and presence of preexisting vascular complications. Further analyses showed that the effect of HOMA-IR on cardiovascular mortality was independent of body mass index, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. In contrast, HOMA-IR did not show such a significant association with noncardiovascular mortality. These results indicate that insulin resistance is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in ESRD.