Future Hydrogen Markets for Transportation and Industry: The Impact of CO2 Taxes

The technological lock-in of the transportation and industrial sector can be largely attributed to the limited availability of alternative fuel infrastructures. Herein, a countrywide supply chain analysis of Germany, spanning until 2050, is applied to investigate promising infrastructure development pathways and associated hydrogen distribution costs for each analyzed hydrogen market. Analyzed supply chain pathways include seasonal storage to balance fluctuating renewable power generation with necessary purification, as well as trailer- and pipeline-based hydrogen delivery. The analysis encompasses green hydrogen feedstock in the chemical industry and fuel cell-based mobility applications, such as local buses, non-electrified regional trains, material handling vehicles, and trucks, as well as passenger cars. Our results indicate that the utilization of low-cost, long-term storage and improved refueling station utilization have the highest impact during the market introduction phase. We find that public transport and captive fleets offer a cost-efficient countrywide renewable hydrogen supply roll-out option. Furthermore, we show that, at comparable effective carbon tax resulting from the current energy tax rates in Germany, hydrogen is cost-competitive in the transportation sector by the year 2025. Moreover, we show that sector-specific CO2 taxes are required to provide a cost-competitive green hydrogen supply in both the transportation and industrial sectors.