Assessing Future Drought Risk Under Land Use Change in Southwestern Bangladesh Using Remote Sensing and Drought Data

This study examines the relationship between land use–land cover (LULC) changes and drought risk dynamics in southwestern Bangladesh, focusing on the Kushtia District, Chuadanga District, Jhenaidah District, and Jashore District. Multi-temporal Landsat data (1994–2018) were used to classify six LULC types, and future scenarios (2028–2050) were projected using a CA–Markov chain model. The Combined Drought Index (CDI) was integrated with LULC fractions through Pearson correlation and linear regression to assess drought variability. Results reveal significant landscape transformation, with settlement areas expanding sharply (≈18–27% in 1994 to 66–85% by 2050), while agricultural land, vegetation, and water bodies declined across all districts. Strong statistical associations were observed between CDI and settlement (negative relationship), as well as agricultural land, barren land, and char land (R2 = 0.63–0.82, p < 0.05). Future projections indicate increasing drought vulnerability, particularly in Jashore District, where CDI may decrease from 0.67 (2028) to 0.35 (2050), suggesting a transition toward extreme drought conditions. The Jhenaidah District may shift toward mild drought conditions, while the Kushtia District and Chuadanga District show gradual declines in CDI values, remaining largely within the normal drought range. The findings highlight spatially varying linkages between land use dynamics and drought variability, underscoring the importance of sustainable land management strategies to mitigate potential future drought risks.