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The aggregate probability of ending a career interruption that begins at childbirth is shown to diminish rapidly with the length of the interruption. The empirical models estimated suggest that the decline can be explained by a combination of structural duration dependence, unobserved heterogeneity, and differences in observed characteristics. The probability of returning to employment for a group of women with identical observed characteristics is found to have an L-shaped distribution for the majority of the sample, suggesting that many women have a very low probability of returning.
William E. Even (Wed,) studied this question.