Spatio-temporal patterns of wheat yield losses and environmental stresses in Europe

Abstract Characterizing environmental drivers of crop yield variability is essential for understanding genotype× environment interactions and optimizing breeders’ field trial networks. These efforts are critical for improving crop yields under increasing food demand. However, a comprehensive pan-European assessment of the relative contributions of major abiotic stresses affecting wheat, the main crop in Europe, and their recent changes is still lacking. In this study, we used the SiriusQuality crop growth model to simulate wheat responses to combinations of yield-reducing factors, including water, nitrogen, and temperature limitations. Simulations were conducted across Europe at a spatial resolution of 25× 25 km for the period 1985 – 2014. The results show that environmental stresses caused an average annual production loss of 111.4 million tons, corresponding to 45% of the simulated potential European wheat production, defined here as yield under conditions without water, nitrogen, or temperature limitations. Water limitation was the dominant driver, accounting for 59% of total losses. Over the study period, simulated yield losses due to environmental constraints decreased on average by 0.22% per year, although strong regional differences were observed. Five environment types were identified based on daily patterns of aboveground biomass loss caused by water deficit, distinguishing environments with no or mild drought stress from those experiencing early-season water stress and severe terminal drought. Spatio-temporal analyses revealed an increased occurrence of environments with no drought or only mild water shortages, while more severe drought environments became less frequent, particularly in Italy, Romania, and Spain. The analysis focuses on water deficit, nitrogen deficit, and high temperature stresses, while processes related to water excess, such as waterlogging, are not explicitly simulated. These findings provide a quantitative basis for improving germplasm testing strategies, refining trial networks, and guiding cultivar selection for specific or representative environments. They also support the identification of target traits for climate-resilient wheat breeding programs.