Assessment of Factors Influencing the Volume of Personal Income Tax Revenues

Individual income tax is the leader among tax revenues. The completeness of its revenues directly depends on the situation in the country. In conditions of instability, in order to preserve their welfare, taxpayers are forced to evade taxation or minimize the amount of payment. The aim of the study is to assess the impact of macroeconomic indicators on personal income tax revenues. Identification of the factors of positive impact on the receipt of personal income tax will improve planning of its volume in the future. The research is based on the results of activities and characteristics of the labor resources of Ukraine, which directly affect the base of taxation of individual income. By means of IBM SPSS STATISTICS software product statistical analysis and time series analysis has been carried out. The applied analytical program Statgrafhics was used for conducting correlation and regression analyses. Statistical data of the State Statistics Service and operational data of the Tax Service of Ukraine became the information base for the research. The work carried out a comparative analysis of real and nominal incomes of the population of Ukraine and the income tax for eighteen years. It was determined that in comparison with 2001 the real value estimation decreased by 7.13 times. Average annual growth of personal income and tax volumes differ significantly, which indicates partial taxation of income. Statistical analysis of indicators indicates a normal distribution, which allowed to make a short-term forecast of the following. The impact of factors on tax revenues during a period of stability and political crisis was assessed. The correlation analysis showed that the level of unemployment, consumer price index and the number of informally employed people do not affect the income tax receipts for individuals. It should be noted that the number of informally employed population in the regions of Ukraine is 22.4%. Employers do not levy any tax on these citizens and the budget loses funds, so there is no connection.