Statistical Analysis of Fragility Curves

This paper presents a statistical analysis of structural fragility curves. Both empirical and analytical fragility curves are considered. The empirical fragility curves are developed utilizing bridge damage data obtained from the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake. The analytical fragility curves are constructed on the basis of the nonlinear dynamic analysis. Two-parameter lognormal distribution functions are used to represent the fragility curves with the parameters estimated by the maximum likelihood method. This paper also presents methods of testing the goodness of fit of the fragility curves and estimating the confidence intervals of the two parameters (median and log-standard deviation) of the distribution. An analytical interpretation of randomness and uncertainty associated with the median is provided.