The Paradox at the Heart of Modernity

As the threat of global climate change grows increasingly dire, we are faced with the challenge of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) (the leading greenhouse gas) emissions to the atmosphere. There is much debate about what are the most effective strategies for meeting this challenge. In this debate, one prominent question centers on whether reducing the carbon intensity of the economy (CO2 emissions per dollar of gross domestic product) will help reduce total CO2 emissions. Some argue that improvements in the carbon efficiency of the economy will allow us to reduce CO2 emissions even in the face of economic growth. Others suggest that improving carbon efficiency may not only be insufficient to counter the effects of economic growth, it may actually spur the expansion of production and consumption, and thereby lead to an escalation of CO2 emissions. Here, I address this issue by examining trends in carbon intensity and total CO2 emissions in the world as a whole and in the five nations that emit the most CO2: China, the United States, Russia, India, and Japan. I find that in recent years the carbon intensity of the world as a whole and in these major emitters has generally declined (i.e., carbon efficiency has improved), yet total emissions have generally risen. This suggests that improving efficiency is unlikely to reduce total CO2 emissions. Therefore, in order to reduce CO2 emissions it will likely be necessary to challenge the growth ideology common to the modern era and shift societies to economic systems that are not dependent on growth.