Agricultural carbon footprint and food security: an assessment of multiple carbon mitigation strategies in China

Purpose To achieve the dual goals of decarbonization and food security, this paper examines China's carbon footprint reduction in 2050 based on current mitigation strategies. Design/methodology/approach Considering publications as featured evidence, this study develops an investigation of agricultural decarbonization in China. First, the authors summarize the mitigation strategies for agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the existing literature. Second, the authors demonstrate the domestic food production target in 2050 and the projection target's projected life-cycle-based GHG emissions at the commodity level. Lastly, the authors forecast China's emission removal in the agri-food sector in 2050 concerning current mitigation strategies and commodity productions. The authors highlight the extent to which each mitigation strategy contributes to decarbonization in China. Findings Practices promoting sustainable development in the agri-food sector significantly contribute to GHG emission removal. The authors find mitigation strategies inhibiting future GHG emissions in the agri-food sector comprise improving nitrogen use efficiency in fertilizers, changing food consumption structure, manure management, cover crops, food waste reduction, dietary change of livestock and covered manure. A 10% improvement in nitrogen use efficiency contributes to 5.03% of GHG emission removal in the agri-food sector by 2050. Reducing food waste and food processing from 30% to 20% would inhibit 1.59% of the total GHG emissions in the agri-food sector. Originality/value This study contributes to policy discussions by accounting for agricultural direct and indirect emission components and assessing the dynamic changes in those related components. This study also extends existing research by forecasting to which extent the decarbonization effects implemented by current mitigation strategies can be achieved while meeting 2050 food security in China.