Rectification of the Madden–Julian Oscillation into the ENSO Cycle

An ocean general circulation model, forced with idealized, purely oscillating wind stresses over the western equatorial Pacific similar to those observed during the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), developed rectified low-frequency anomalies in SST and zonal currents, compared to a run in which the forcing was climatological. The rectification in SST resulted from increased evaporation under stronger than normal winds of either sign, from correlated intraseasonal oscillations in both vertical temperature gradient and upwelling speed forced by the winds, and from zonal advection due to nonlinearly generated equatorial currents. The net rectified signature produced by the MJO-like wind stresses was SST cooling (about 0.4°C) in the west Pacific, and warming (about 0.1°C) in the central Pacific, tending to flatten the background zonal SST gradient. It is hypothesized that, in a coupled system, such a pattern of SST anomalies would spawn additional westerly wind anomalies as a result of SST-induced changes in the low-level zonal pressure gradient. This was tested in an intermediate coupled model initialized to 1 January 1997, preceding the 1997–98 El Niño. On its own, the model hindcast a relatively weak warm event, but when the effect of the rectified SST pattern was imposed, a coupled response produced the hypothesized additional westerlies and the hindcast El Niño became about 50% stronger (measured by east Pacific SST anomalies), suggesting that the MJO can interact constructively with the ENSO cycle. This implies that developing the capacity to predict, if not individual MJO events, then the conditions that affect their amplitude, may enhance predictability of the strength of oncoming El Niños.