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This article examines the relationship between income and pollutant emissions in the O bj ECTS Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) to determine how historical analysis can best guide modeling efforts. Future scenarios for energy-related emissions of nitrous oxide (NO x ) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 )are presented along with the methodology used. A pseudo-Kuznets approach is used where the level of emission control is assumed to vary with per capita income. Emission results depend on the assumptions for when emission controls are implemented and the stringency of those controls. Historical analysis of the relationship between income and emission controls might be particularly useful in informing the parameterization of when emission controls are implemented. However, historical analysis is likely to be less helpful in informing the selection of parameters for the future levels of control, particularly at future times when parameter values are well outside the range of historical experience.
Steven J. Smith (Wed,) studied this question.