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The verification of the Arakawa and Schubert (1974) cumulus parameterization is continued using a semi-prognostic approach. Observed data from Phase III of GATE are used to provide estimates of the large-scale forcing of a cumulus ensemble at each observation time. Instantaneous values of the precipitation and the warming and drying due to cumulus convection are calculated using the parameterization. The results show that the calculated precipitation agrees very well with estimates from the observed large-scale moisture budget and from radar observations. The calculated vertical profiles of cumulus warming and drying also are quite similar to the observed. It is shown that the closure assumption adopted in the, parameterization (the cloud-work function quasi-equilibrium) results in errors of generally <10% in the calculated precipitation. The sensitivity of the parameterization to some assumptions of the cloud ensemble model and the solution method for the cloud-base mass flux is investigated.
Stephen J. Lord (Fri,) studied this question.