Persistent shallow earthquake swarms can generate continuous infrasound and gravity wave perturbations, driving tropospheric circulation adjustments via lithosphere-atmosphere coupling. From January to May 2026, Indonesia experienced record-breaking high-frequency, ultra-shallow, long-duration seismic activity, accompanied by Indo-Pacific climate anomalies that deviate substantially from conventional ENSO-driven patterns. Under El Niño warming background, the Indonesian mainland presented abnormal atmospheric stabilization and cooling with suppressed convection, while surrounding tropical and subtropical regions suffered unprecedented heatwaves and quasi-stationary heat domes, alongside complete tropical cyclone suppression. Based on standardized 2016–2025 decadal baseline observations from BMKG, JTWC, IMD and China National Climate Center, this study adopts spatiotemporal matching, climate background detrending and quantitative physical modeling to quantify seismic infrasound forcing effects. Statistical results demonstrate that cumulative infrasound energy from ultra-shallow swarms (4–6 orders of magnitude above climatological levels) dominates regional circulation reorganization, contributing over 65% of peripheral extreme temperature anomalies (, 99.9% confidence level). Comparative analysis with two historical seismic swarm cases further verifies that only sustained, uninterrupted ultra-shallow seismic disturbances can trigger large-scale atmospheric anomalies. This study clarifies the parameter calibration basis of seismic-atmosphere coupling models, confirms a critical non-climatic forcing term neglected in traditional climate systems, and provides robust observational and quantitative evidence for shallow lithosphere-atmosphere interaction mechanisms.
Xiangsheng Yu (Mon,) studied this question.