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Continued global action on climate change has major consequences for fossil fuel, especially for coal as the most carbon-intensive fuel. This article current market developments in the most important coal-producing coal-consuming countries, resulting in a critical qualitative assessment of for future coal exports. Colombia, as the world’s fourth largest, is strongly affected by these global trends, with more than 90% of its being exported. Market analysis finds Colombia in a strong position, owing to its low production costs and high coal quality. , market trends and enhanced climate policies suggest a gloomy for future exports. Increasing competition on the Atlantic as well as market will keep coal prices low and continue pressure on mining. Increasing numbers of filed bankruptcies and lay-offs might be just beginning of a carbon bubble devaluing fossil fuel investments and leaving stranded. Colombia largely supplies European and Mediterranean but also delivers some quantities to the US Gulf Coast, and to Central South America. Future coal demand in most of these countries will continue decline in the next decades. Newly constructed power plants in emerging (India, China) are unlikely to compensate for this downturn owing to domestic supply and decreasing demand. Therefore, maintaining or increasing mining volumes in Colombia should be re-evaluated, taking into new economic realities as well as local externalities. Ignoring these risks lead to additional stranded investments, aggravating the local resource and hampering sustainable economic development.
Oei et al. (Tue,) studied this question.