Seasonal fluctuations in fitness result in severe reductions in effective population size

Abstract Genetic evidence for fluctuating selection has begun to accumulate for different species over the past few decades, especially for the Drosophila genus where studies have reported hundreds of loci undergoing putatively adaptive oscillations across successive seasons. However, most theoretical and simulation studies of fluctuating selection have relied on abstract or weakly parameterized models, making it difficult to assess their relevance for natural populations. In this study, we simulate multilocus seasonally fluctuating selection under a recently developed model and examine its effect on the variance effective population size ( N e ) at a genome-wide scale. By recapitulating genomic, demographic, and evolutionary parameters from natural Drosophila populations in our simulations, we were able to reproduce allele frequency oscillations reported in recent studies and show that these lead to ∼50% genome-wide reductions in N e . We also demonstrate that N e reductions are well predicted by the maximum frequency amplitude among all adaptively fluctuating loci, and that the frequency amplitudes are largely determined by the number of adaptively fluctuating loci and the strength of their epistatic interactions. Our results demonstrate that fluctuating selection can substantially reduce effective population size and underscore the importance of temporally variable selection in shaping genome-wide patterns of variation beyond classical models. Article Summary Genetic studies of fluctuating selection in natural populations have grown steadily over the past decade, with reports suggesting that hundreds of loci undergo adaptive oscillations over seasonal timescales in cosmopolitan Drosophila populations. By simulating seasonally fluctuating selection under a recently developed model and ecological scenarios informed by published studies, the authors show that this mode of selection can reduce effective population size by ∼50%, with the magnitude of the reduction correlated with the locus exhibiting the largest allele frequency fluctuations. These findings highlight fluctuating selection as an important factor shaping genome-wide patterns of genetic variation and effective population size.