Prediction of Resumption of Drinking in Posttreatment Alcoholics

The ability of five factors (depressive symptomatology, neuropsychological performance, psychosocial maladjustment, previous treatment history, and childhood attention deficit disorder symptomatology) to predict relapse was examined in a follow-up experimental design. Fifty-eight male and 45 female alcoholics were interviewed immediately following release from inpatient treatment units. Fourteen months later, 41 subjects (41%) were classified as resumers; 62 (59%) were abstainers. Resumers showed significantly poorer scores than abstainers on all five of the predictor variables. Discriminant function analysis resulted in 75% correct classification of resumers and abstainers (chi 2 = 22.1, p less than .001). Stepwise multiple regression resulted in isolation of depressive symptomatology as the best single predictor of relapse.