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Although there has been a massive increase in the size and complexity of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, most of the academic research into the relationship between token design parameters and the long-term value of a given token is still very much in its infancy. Most of the research in tokenomics is theoretical in nature, based upon frameworks for understanding, or is focused solely on observing a specific time frame. The authors of this paper address the above mentioned void by studying the statistically significant relationships between five on-chain tokenomic variables--transaction gas fees, total value locked (TVL), token unlocks, tokens burned, and governance concentration (as measured using the Gini coefficient) -- and the market price of Ether (ETH) during a 52 months observation window that began in August 2021 and ended in September 2025. The data for the study consisted of bi-weekly observations (n = 108) which allowed researchers to use three different analytical methods--Spearman correlation analysis, log-linear multiple regression analysis, and an error correction model (ECM) after conducting Johansen cointegration and unit root tests. A cointegrating equation among the variables was established through Johansen Trace Testing, indicating that all of these variables do indeed exhibit a long-run equilibrium relationship. The ECM revealed that the total amount of funds “locked” into smart contracts (“total value locked”) was the strongest single predictor of the price of Ether in both the long run (beta = 0.8, p 0.001) and short run (beta = 1.18, p 0.001) specifications. Additionally, it was found that token unlocks have a negative relationship with price (beta = −0.22, p 0.001). Gas Fees (beta = 0.2, p = 0.021) and tokens burned (beta = 0.15, p = 0.039) had positive coefficients at the 0.01 level in the long-run specification; however, both exhibited extremely high levels of multicolinearity (Variance Inflation Factor28,000), likely due to their technical/operational linkages under EIP-1559. Voting power did not demonstrate a statistically significant relationship to price (rho =0.143, p 0.05).
Mohammad et al. (Tue,) studied this question.