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Determining and forecasting the load behavior in distribution systems are very important in both operational and planning stages. Increased penetration of thermostatically-controlled loads such as air-conditioners, water heaters, heat pumps, etc. has resulted in many investigations on how to determine an accurate dynamic of these loads. Thermostatically-controlled loads are also a candidate for the direct load control because of their thermal storage capabilities. In this paper, a load model based on stochastic difference equation is used to study the effects of the load parameters and the direct load control actions. Stochastic difference suitable for the computer analysis and is very simple to implement. By using this model, a Monte Carlo simulation is run for an example system. The effects of load parameter dispersion and different load actions are analyzed. The distribution of house temperatures is studied for control actions. The results for the load parameter dispersion and the direct load control actions on aggregated load for the example system are given and a discussion based on the results is provided in the paper.
Uçak et al. (Wed,) studied this question.