Global warming demands urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with road transport being a major contributor. Electrification of passenger cars is widely promoted as a key mitigation strategy; however, its real-world impact remains debated. This study develops a calculation framework to estimate annual fleet-level greenhouse gas emissions based on actual consumption data, vehicle type distribution, age and mileage. Using this method, short- and mid-term drawbacks of electrification are quantified alongside long-term benefits through scenario analysis aligned with the European Union 2035 target. Results indicate that electrification begins to deliver net emission reductions after 2032, achieving a 5.3% decrease by 2035 compared to an internal combustion engine fleet. These findings highlight the temporal dynamics of electrification and provide evidence-based insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders.
Lerchner et al. (Wed,) studied this question.