What is the clinical evidence from this study?

Study design: Other. Population: African Swine Fever. Intervention: Transmission routes. Primary outcome: Most likely transmission route and infection risk.

November 24, 2021Open Access

Risk Analysis of the Transmission Route for the African Swine Fever Virus in Mainland China

Q: What does this research mean for the field?

The infection risk of the African Swine Fever Virus in mainland China is highest for transmission via employees and vehicles, followed by contaminative swills, and lowest for the trade of infected pigs and pork products. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

Key Result

The infection risk of African Swine Fever Virus in mainland China is highest for transmission via employees and vehicles, followed by contaminative swills, and lowest for the trade of infected pigs.

Structured PICO

Population

Pig farms and slaughterhouses in mainland China affected by African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) between August 2018 and August 2019.

Outcome

Risk of transmission routes (employees/vehicles, contaminative swills, transportation of pigs/pork products) and spatiotemporal transmission map

Computational modeling of the African Swine Fever Virus transmission network in China reveals that employees and vehicles pose the highest infection risk.

Limitations

Only crawled location information from Baidu Map, which may deviate from the actual pig trade network.
Ignored the community structure of the real pig trade network when building the transmission model.
The network transmission model lacks theoretical analysis due to its high dimension.

Abstract

African swine fever first broke out in mainland China in August 2018 and has caused a substantial loss to China’s pig industry. Numerous investigations have confirmed that trades and movements of infected pigs and pork products, feeding pigs with contaminative swills, employees, and vehicles carrying the virus are the main transmission routes of the African swine fever virus (ASFV) in mainland China. However, which transmission route is more risky and what is the specific transmission map are still not clear enough. In this study, we crawl the data related to pig farms and slaughterhouses from Baidu Map by writing the Python language and then construct the pig transport network. Following this, we establish an ASFV transmission model over the network based on probabilistic discrete-time Markov chains. Furthermore, we propose spatiotemporal backward detection and forward transmission algorithms in semi-directed weighted networks. Through the simulation and calculation, the risk of transmission routes is analyzed, and the results reveal that the infection risk for employees and vehicles with the virus is the highest, followed by contaminative swills, and the transportation of pigs and pork products is the lowest; the most likely transmission map is deduced, and it is found that ASFV spreads from northeast China to southwest China and then to west; in addition, the infection risk in each province at different times is assessed, which can provide effective suggestions for the prevention and control of ASFV.

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Cite This Study

Hu et al. (Wed,) conducted a other in African Swine Fever. Transmission routes was evaluated on Most likely transmission route and infection risk. The infection risk of African Swine Fever Virus in mainland China is highest for transmission via employees and vehicles, followed by contaminative swills, and lowest for the trade of infected pigs.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a1c007d1567d2fc4d5f6917 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2021.785885

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