Evidence-based assessment of urban infrastructure interdependence in power outages

This study aimed to evaluate the cascading effect and interdependencies of critical facilities in urban areas following disasters, with a particular focus on power supply systems as an example. The authors collected and analysed historical disaster data, reviewed cases to examine the propagation patterns and spatial failures of critical infrastructure. The authors then used kernel density estimation to examine the geographic hotspots of facilities and utilised big data on power outages. In addition, this study used a semi-quantitative risk matrix to examine the cascading effect risk of critical facilities following disasters in metropolitan areas. This study applies hazard-vulnerability maps of flooding risk under global warming scenarios to assess the cascading effect risk of critical infrastructure in the current and future situations (global warming scenarios 1°C, 2°C, and 4°C). Because of the complexity and strong interdependency of infrastructure systems, a single failure may lead to a cascading effect of disruptions in other services. In high-risk districts, short-term exposure to hazards may increase service function risks, and as exposure time increases, the facilities in the area may become increasingly affected, resulting in severe consequences and system service failures.