A hierarchical non‐homogenous Poisson model for meta‐analysis of adenoma counts

We use a hierarchical model for a meta-analysis that combines information from autopsy studies of adenoma prevalence and counts. The studies we included reported findings using a variety of adenoma prevalence groupings and age categories. We use a non-homogeneous Poisson model for multinomial bin probabilities. The Poisson model allows risk to depend on age and sex, and incorporates extra-Poisson variability. We evaluate model fit using the posterior predicted distribution of adenoma prevalence reported by the studies included in our analyses and validate our model using adenoma prevalence reported by more recent colonoscopy studies. For 1990, the estimated adenoma prevalence among Americans at age 60 is 40.3 per cent for men compared to 29.2 per cent for women.