Assessing Decadal Predictability in an Earth‐System Model Using Explainable Neural Networks

Abstract We show that explainable neural networks can identify regions of oceanic variability that contribute predictability on decadal timescales in a fully coupled Earth‐system model. The neural networks learn to use sea‐surface temperature anomalies to predict future continental surface temperature anomalies. We then use a neural‐network explainability method called layerwise relevance propagation to infer which oceanic patterns lead to accurate predictions made by the neural networks. In particular, regions within the North Atlantic Ocean and North Pacific Ocean lend the most predictability for surface temperature across continental North America. We apply the proposed methodology to decadal variability, although the concept is generalizable to other timescales of predictability. Furthermore, while our approach focuses on predictable patterns of internal variability within climate models, it should be generalizable to observational data as well. Our study contributes to the growing evidence that explainable neural networks are important tools for advancing geoscientific knowledge.