Uzbekistan’s Trade Policy Liberalization. Predicted Impact of WTO Accession on Chemical Industry Trade

This paper is dedicated to the recent reforms in Uzbekistan’s foreign trade policy and the process of the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization. It pays special attention to the chemical industry trade; with the partial equilibrium model employed, expected changes in imports of chemicals, budget revenues and consumer welfare are revealed. Two scenarios — mere tariff reduction or abolition of country-specific discrimination practices in imports — are considered. Results show that, in the former case, imports of chemical products and consumer welfare will slightly increase and budget revenues will decline; the outcome in the latter case differs: budget revenues will grow considerably, whereas imports and consumer welfare will decrease. We conclude in the latter case that the negative effect will be outweighed by creating a fairer, more competitive environment thanks to removing discrimination practices such as import-specific excise taxes and exemptions on import duty payments for state companies.