Temporal Trends in the Incidence of Heart Failure among Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Its Association with Mortality

Abstract Rationale Heart failure (HF) is a common comorbidity in the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) population, but previous research has shown underrecognition. Objectives The objectives of this study were to determine the incidence of HF in a prevalent COPD cohort and to determine the association of incident HF with short- and long-term mortality of patients with COPD. Methods Crude incidence of HF in the HF-naive primary care COPD population was calculated for each year from 2006 to 2016 using UK data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Patients with COPD were identified using a validated code list and were required to be 35 years old at COPD diagnosis, have a history of smoking, and have documented airflow obstruction. The Office of National Statistics provided mortality data for England. Adjusted mortality rate ratios (aMRRs) from Poisson regression were calculated for patients with COPD and incident HF (COPD-iHF) in 2006, 2011, and 2015, and compared temporally with patients with COPD and without incident HF (COPD–no HF) in those years. Regression was adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, severity of airflow limitation, smoking status, history of cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. Results We identified 95,987 HF-naive patients with COPD. Crude incidence of HF was steady from 2006 to 2016 (1.18 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval CI, 1.09–1.27). Patients with COPD-iHF experienced greater than threefold increase in 1-year mortality and twofold increase in 5-year and 10-year mortality compared with patients with COPD–no HF, with no change on the basis of year of HF diagnosis. Mortality of patients with COPD-iHF did not improve over time, comparing incident HF in 2011 (1-yr aMRR, 1.26; 95% CI, 0.83–1.90; 5-yr aMRR, 1.26; 95% CI, 0.98–1.61) and 2015 (1-yr aMRR, 1.63; 95% CI, 0.98–2.70) with incident HF in 2006. Conclusions The incidence of HF in the UK COPD population was stable in the last decade. Survival of patients with COPD and incident HF has not improved over time in England. Bespoke guidelines for the diagnosis and management of HF in the COPD population are needed to improve identification and survival of patients.