What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to assess potential habitat range shifts of Aporrectodea caliginosa under climate change in Western Siberia.

June 3, 2026

Prediction of Habitat Suitability for Aporrectodea caliginosa in Western Siberia Based on Bioclimatic Scenarios

Key Points

The aim is to assess potential habitat range shifts of Aporrectodea caliginosa under climate change in Western Siberia.
Utilized the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) for modeling species distribution.
Analyzed data with four climatic predictors based on expert judgment and statistical evaluation.
Projected future habitats based on SSP climate change scenarios for the years 2040 and 2060.
Current model shows AUC = 0.87, indicating strong predictive capability.
By 2040, suitable habitat is projected to expand in northern and eastern directions due to climate warming.
By 2060, under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, habitat suitability is expected to decrease in Western Siberia, particularly in the southwest.

Abstract

An assessment of the potential range shift of the species Aporrectodea caliginosa in Western Siberia under the influence of global climate change was conducted. The Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was used to model the species' distribution. The study region is defined by a rectangle bounded by 60°–95° E and 48°–75° N, encompassing parts of Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and China. Four climatic variables, selected through expert judgment and statistical evaluation, were used as predictors: mean temperature of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of the wettest quarter. A model (AUC = 0.87) was built using current species occurrence data and subsequently used for forecasting. Projections were based on the climate change scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for the years 2040 and 2060, utilizing three global climate models: BCC-CSM2-MR, CMCC-ESM2, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We found that the temperature of the coldest quarter is the key limiting factor for the species' current distribution. The predictive models indicate an expansion of suitable habitat for the species in northern and eastern directions under the considered scenarios by 2040, associated with projected climate warming. By 2060, under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, a decrease in habitat suitability in Western Siberia is projected compared to 2040, potentially linked to an increase in unsuitable areas in the southwestern part of the region. This reduction in habitat suitability is explained by the approaching of the species' ecological optimum limits. The obtained data can be used to assess the risks of ecosystem change in the region, as well as to select sites for qualitative and quantitative sampling. Global climate change is creating favorable conditions for the invasion of Aporrectodea caliginosa into the northeastern part of Western Siberia, which could lead to the transformation of local soil ecosystems and the displacement of native species of the genus Eisenia.

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Cite This Study

Romanchuk et al. (Mon,) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a1fc730dee9eb8c0dce80cd https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1134/s1064229325604937

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