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The first exam in a typical first-semester general chemistry course is used to identify students at risk of failing the course. The performance at Hunter College of 667 students on the first exam in general chemistry in seven different classes between fall 2000 and fall 2005 was correlated with the students' final score in the course. The correlation between the first exam score and the final course performance exclusive of the first exam was 0.73, a correlation coefficient (Pearson r value) higher than any commercially available diagnostic test. Logistic regression was performed on the same data set to generate a probability of success metric. Such an analysis can be used for student advising or placement. Similar results were found for eight first-semester general chemistry classes run at three other CUNY four-year colleges and at a large midwestern university, demonstrating the robustness of the correlation between the first exam and final course performance.
Mills et al. (Mon,) studied this question.