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The results from an application of a conceptual hydrologic model, combined with filtering and statistical estimation methods, to real‐time forecasting of river discharges are very encouraging. The use of feedback significantly improves the overall forecasting capability of the model even when the model and input error statistics are not perfectly known. Identification of these statistics through adaptive filtering techniques is practical and further improves the performance of the model. Comparison with a simple linear adaptive ‘black box’ model is very favorable for the conceptual hydrologic model, especially for forecast lead times comparably to the response time of the catchment. The results emphasize the importance of using a realistic model of uncertainty accounting for the nonstationarity in the rainfall‐runoff process.
Kitanidis et al. (Mon,) studied this question.
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