Regulations in the era of new‐type urbanisation and migrant workers' settlement intentions: The case of Beijing

Abstract The most important determinant of migration decisions across the globe is economic gain, and attempts to regulate access to a better life have been met with contention. Most previous studies debate on whether regulations successfully restrict the numbers of migrants. However, more recent work points to their focus on migrant selection. Because the New‐type Urbanisation Plan was introduced in 2014, China's mega‐cities (populations of 10 million or more) have begun limiting migrants by job skills. For example, cities with upgraded industrial structures are adopting regulations that support the attraction and retention of high‐skilled migrants while allowing them to refuse an influx of low‐skilled workers. What impact have such regulations had on migration? This article explores how these targeted regulations shape migrant workers' long‐term (i.e., 5 years or more) settlement intentions in the mega‐city of Beijing. Drawing on the China Migrants Dynamic Survey data—commissioned by the National Health Commission and collected in 2012, 2014 and 2017—we find that the proportion of migrants planning to remain in Beijing long term has dropped substantially. While migrants continue to leave small hometowns assuming they will be paid more for their work in mega‐cities such as Beijing, new regulations have lessened the effects of the income differentials between hometowns and the host city. Such a decline in influence is most pronounced among migrant workers in traditional industries (e.g., manufacturing, construction and retail) who are targeted by the regulations.