Prediction and mapping of landslide hazard

The paper describes a mechanics-based methodology for prediction of landslide hazard on hillside slopes. The principal components are estimation of infiltration and groundwater response, and estimation of safety factor and failure probability. Predictions with the models are made by using the best estimates of the input parameters and the associated uncertainties. The uncertainties about the inputs and the sensitivities of the model outputs to uncertainties about the inputs are evaluated and translated into failure probability. Our objective was to provide a method that can be used to estimate landslide hazard over a large area prior to making detailed site investigations. The method was applied to slopes along the South Fork of Tilton River, in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State. Predicted hazards were compared with results of a landslide inventory. The data used in the examples were derived from published sources. However, the procedures developed are not limited to this condition and can readily incorporate additional information derived from more detailed investigations.Key words: failure probability, groundwater, hazard, landslides, mapping, slope stability.