A Low, ‘Normal’ Score on the Mini‐Mental State Examination Predicts Development of Dementia After Three Years

OBJECTIVES: To study whether a low, "normal" sumscore (i.e., 24 or higher) on the Mini-Mental Status Examination (MMSE) near the cutpoint usually employed for identifying persons with cognitive impairment predicts later development of dementia. DESIGN: A prospective study of a random sample of nondemented persons aged 75 years and older, according to DSM-III criteria, with follow-ups after 3 and 6 years. PARTICIPANTS: The subjects were 215 persons living at home, mean age 81 years, 81% women. Their mean MMSE sumscore at the start of the study (T0) was 27.9 (range 24-30). MAIN RESULTS: A low MMSE sumscore at T0 was identified as a statistically strongly significant predictor of dementia after 3 years (P < .001), when more than 40% of those with a sumscore of 24 or 25 at T0 had become demented. A similar, although weaker and statistically nonsignificant, trend was observed for the risk after 6 years in relation to MMSE scoring at baseline. CONCLUSION: Persons with a sumscore of 24 or 25 and classified as not suffering from dementia according to the DSM-III criteria are at high risk of developing dementia within 3 years.