Conflict and the Balance of Power

The role of differences in power resources between parties for manifest conflict between them is a neglected topic in conflict studies. Here a power balance model of conflict is outlined which takes the difference in power resources between two parties as the central independent variable and the probability of manifest conflict between them as the dependent variable. Utility of achieving the goal, expectancy of success in conflict initiation and in defense and relative deprivation are the main intervening variables. Predictions from the model challenge the widespread assump tion that the probability of contlict is highest when parties have equal power resources. Instead a bi-modal distribution of the probability of manifest conflict is predicted. Empirical data are discussed and the relevance of the model for exchange theories is indicated.