(1) Background: The rapid spatial expansion of the ruderal weed Chenopodium hybridum L. poses a potential challenge to agricultural production and regional ecosystems in China. However, the spatial evolution characteristics of its potential geographic distribution remain unclear under the compound scenarios of global warming and intensified human activities. (2) Methods: Utilizing an optimized MaxEnt model (regularization multiplier (RM) = 0.5, feature combination (FC) = LQ), this study integrated bioclimatic, topographic, soil, and Human Footprint (Hfp) data to predict the potential suitable habitats of C. hybridum in China under current conditions and four future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for the 2050s and 2070s. Additionally, spatial turnover rate and centroid migration analyses were incorporated to elucidate its spatiotemporal dynamics. (3) Results: The results indicate that the optimized model exhibited robust predictive performance (Area Under the Curve (AUC) = 0.928). The Human Footprint (Hfp) was the environmental factor most prominently associated with the macro-spatial distribution of C. hybridum, with a relative contribution of 58.4%—significantly higher than any single natural geographic factor. Currently, potential suitable habitats are primarily concentrated in North, Central, and Southwest China, totaling approximately 205.59 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the highly suitable core habitats exhibit a consistent contraction trend, whereas the marginal suitable habitats shift spatially toward the arid inland regions of the northwest and the high-altitude areas of the southwest. By the 2070s under the higher-emission scenario (SSP585), the spatial turnover rate reaches a peak value (16.23%), and the distributional centroids of the potential suitable habitats exhibit localized directional shifts. (4) Conclusions: The spatial expansion trajectory of C. hybridum exhibits a high degree of spatial congruence with human activity corridors, reflecting a distinct macro-ecological niche spatial response characterized by shifts toward higher latitudes and elevations. It must be emphasized that the projections of this study reflect potential habitat suitability rather than definitive future actual distributions. The three-tier spatial management framework proposed herein—encompassing transport regulation, ecological management in core areas, and early warning in marginal zones—can serve as a scientific basis for the early monitoring and spatial management of this species under climate change.
Tong et al. (Tue,) studied this question.